ASTRONOMICAL MARKERS OF CLIMATIC SPELLS

By José Luis Pascual Blázquez ã  September 2005

 

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         Abstract.  Introduction.  Climatic Variability and prediction.  The climatic crisis of XX century.  Introductory Cases.  Searching " new ways ".  Principle of uniqueness and resonance.  Planets like oscillators.  Correlation between climatic variability and astronomical cycles.  Inductive planetary configurations.  Physical meaning of the " planetary aspects ". Global effect and local effect.  Recommended readings.  Notes.

         Abstract

         In this article we ask ourselves about the possibility to forecast climatic spells by means of astronomical markers. It would seem a revolutionary, maybe an absurd proposal, but the only way to find out it is to go into the matter. 

         Indeed, we propose a new way to work and we have got good reasons to do it, the more evident, the failure of numerical models and limitations of global phenomena like El Niño (E.N.S.O.), North Atlantic Oscillation, etc. in long range forecast.  We will apply solids principles, like uniqueness in Nature and resonance, against separativity and reductionism, usually employed in scientific research. 

         The planetary effect is extremely weak, but only in quantitative terms; due to this reason, some people thinks is negligible.  In fact, planetary factors have been introduced into equations, without any variations in final solutions.  But we think this fact maybe an evidence of the limitations in this way to work; an accumulative effect could exist, so difficult or impossible to enter in equations and numerical models. 

         So, we can go into the to matter about long range forecast all through different methods than usually, perhaps through a worldwide vision, considering the Solar System like a total and unique entity where all parts - conceptual parts, that only exists in our minds – acts and interacts with accurate solidarity and interactivity. Very small parameters could play an important and decisive role:  we call them astronomical markers. 

         Introduction

         Meteorology presents today excellent proposals in the short term weather forecast;  but also it is well known that, beyond of two days, the solutions of numerical models are little trustworthy and the hopes to improve in the long term are little.  Today, meteorologist are capable of generic seasonal predictions (temperatures and precipitations average), which supposes a remarkable qualitative jump;  but even so, the long term weather forecast continues being a problem without definite o partial solution. 

         One of the main difficulties lay down in the fact that the atmosphere behaves like a chaotic system, which drastically limits the value of the equations that are introduced in great computers. Some think that the more data and the more exact are those that are given to the machines, the more close we will be of the final solution.  In Meteorology we are in front of a determinism question, as it already happened to the investigators of the atomic world at the beginning of century XX

         As opposed to this bleak panorama, talking about climatic variability, we think that the problem can be investigated by other ways different from used by the meteorologists at the moment.  The evolution of the Physics and science in general during the last decades allows us to make some proposals that years ago could be considered bold or absurd. We are talking about investigate the problem of long term prediction by means of global considerations, that is, influential astronomical conditions. We will justify the reason immediatelly. 

We have a precedent in the Theory of Milankovitch, that interprets the great climatic changes - freezings, defrostings, etc. - through the variations of the Earth orbit (inclination of the axis, transfering of the line of apsids and precession of equinoxes, all of them factors of long period (1)  and apparently separated of the causes of climate).  We can ask ourselves if climatic variability is interpretable also through connected astronomical markers with it, as they are the planetary cycles within the Solar System (corresponding resonant periods).  The quantitative weakness of the planetary influence may suggests at first that it could be negligible and we could ignore it without consequences for any mathematical model. In fact, numerical astronomical parameters have been introduced in the equations of the models and treated by big computers; like it was expected, so weak factors actually do not vary the value of final results. 

         But take this as a demonstration that the planetary effect does not exist, or believe that we can ignore it without any consequence, it would be a mistaken conclusion. We thought that we would commit an enormous error in all orders - philosophical, logical, scientific, etc. -.  We are going to try to explain the reason. 

         Climatic variability and prediction

         The annual climatic cycle is consequence of the turn of the Earth around the Sun and daily rotation; the combined effect of the of both movements, together with the differential heating (different inclination from rays of the Sun on each terrestrial latitude, difference of heat capacity between continents and the oceans, etc.) causes the general circulation of the atmosphere, with its cyclonal and anticyclonic cells, Jet Stream,  Intertropical Convergence Zone, etc., on which also the ocean streams exert their influence. 

         The global result is the sequence of diverse climatic scenes characteristic in each latitude and zone of the planet throughout the cycle of 365 days.  In order to study climatic variability we can suppose first the orbit Earth and the solar climate stables, without any change. If so, we can ask ourselves:  if the causes of annual climatic cycle are equal every year, what can we attribute that for a concrete zone of the planet there are years drier or humid than others, that zonal circulation descend more or less in autumn and winter along the years, that from time to time an anticyclone is anchored during weeks or months in a position blocking the passage to the storms or forcing them to circulate along certain unusually “corridors ", etc.? 

         A possible answer is that the exciting cause, the Earth orbital motion, generates a series of internal rhythms in oceans and the atmosphere, causing therefore well definite climatic trends in every place. We could get satisfaction with this hypothesis, but we would not solve anything and we would return to be as we were. 

         But...  are we completely sure that the cause of the annual climatic cycle and of its variability year to year resides exclusively in the Earth orbital motion?  We know that to propose lunar and planetary influences it sounds to astrology, to popular beliefs and superstition.  We want to remember here that in years 30 and 40 of century XX meteorologists had great hopes in the study of this type of influences - solar activity, planetary and lunar gravitation when tried to explain the problem of climatic spells (International Congress of Cosmobiology celebrated in Nize in June of 1938, that reunited astronomers, meteorologists, physicists, engineers, etc.). (2)   And, nevertheless...  can we remove the scissors and cut the Nature by where we want like a negligent surgeon?  Will not we be denaturing the problem when separating the Earth and the Sun of the rest of elements of the Solar System, that behaves like an unique and inseparable set complex?  When reducing the climate to the interaction between two only bodies of that machinery that works integrated, shared in common and interactively, will not we be losing in such way something that we did not have expected, simplifying the problem and obtaining a simple cartoon? 

         We have a point of comparison in the role that oligoelements plays in the soil (Agronomy), in the catalysts of chemical reactions and enzymes in the alive beings (Biochemical).  The presence of oligoelements in the soil, although in lowest amounts, is fundamental in Agriculture, and also in feeding. Deficiencies of boron, manganese, etc. in a soil can cause disastrous in harvests; although the fundamental elements for plants are nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium, in Agronomy exists the “law of the minimum”:  the production is limited by the element that is in smaller amount, even if this one is an oligoelement.  And the same we see in superior animals: although the basic feeding is constituted by proteins, lipids and glucids, the presence in lowest amounts of zinc, cupper, vitamins, etc. is fundamental and its deficiency can cause alterations of health no proportional to the necessary daily minimum doses of these substances. 

         Something insinuates to us that similar circumstances can also occur in the development of climatic spells respect to some planetary cycles, by weak that can be the luminosity or gravity from a planet respect to other parameters (annual solar cycle, etc.). 

         First we are going to see when the more extreme climatic spells occurred in century XX, trying to find out if they corresponded with key points of the planetary cycles.  We know that already in this century we were immersed in a great climatic crisis, but we will deal exclusively with variability.  Of course, although we look for astronomical correlations with local climatic trends, if our hypothesis is viable, the great events of the sky will go even to more or less dramatic and global climatic situations, that will be embodied of very diverse way of Earth places to others (simultaneous floods in zones, droughts in others, etc., but extreme in both cases). 

         The climatic crisis of century XX

         Case 1.1.  Climacterical conjunction, beginning of C-800

         December 21th    1980;  18:09 GMT   Madrid ( Spain )

          For Astrometeorology the climatic crisis of century XX is signified by the conjunction that Jupiter and Saturn made to 9° of Libra at the end of 1980. We are dealing here with an ancient doctrine which we know in Western World through the Persian astrologer Abumassar (787-886), On the great conjunctions. (3)  This conjunction had climacterical characteristics, like all those that take place near the equinoctial points (0 °  Aries and 0 ° Libra), beginning with it a cycle of 800 years of duration.  Kepler, little suspicious personage for the modern Physics, describes it in detail in his work Mysterium Cosmographicum  (The Secret of the Universe). (4)   We find a previous critical important point of similar characteristic in century XII, beginning of a tempered period, with the Small Glacial Age of century XVII like centre (opposition point) of this C-800.

         The climatic crisis of century XX has been studied by the canary meteorologist Innocencio Font Tullot, who died in 2003, in their work History of the climate in Spain .  Climatic changes and their causes. (5)   For us, we repeated, it is necessary to associate climatic changes to the cycle of conjunctions of the most important planets in the Solar System by position and influence, Jupiter and Saturn, known in the ancient bibliography as “cronocrators” (literally, " governors of time"). 

         Logically, the crisis (transformation of the implied systems) extends to the years previous and later to the main point (1980-81) within the subcycles of simple conjunctions of 20 years of period, and to the ones of third order, that are repeated to only 9 °  of distance of the previous ones (C- 60, in fact 58.2 years). 

         All climatic studies that we make of centuries XX and XXI in relation to the influence of elements of the Solar System, we will have to fit them within these facts. 

         Introductory cases

         Case 1.2.  The great stellium of century XX

         February 5th   1962 00:10 GMT  Madrid ( Spain )

         Maybe this is the most notable celestial figure of century XX;  in fact, during the previous days there was a journalistic commotion anywhere in the world.  The news ran like gunpowder when some Indian astrologers announced the end of the World because of this exceptional figure. Similar predictions propagated by all medieval and Renaissance Europe causing considerable commotion. 

         Usually this type of prognoses is totally mistaken, and, when the exceptional fact happens, nobody had announced anything.  But, perhaps, more than mistaken, we may say disproportioned. 

         Let us see the climatic information that we have about the next months to this stellium in Aquarius. Of course, we do not find anything extraordinary in the next immediately days, but in successive months (inertia of the resonant terrestrial systems with planetary cycles). 

         We think that phenomena of accumulation in the next months could have had relation with the tragic floods of Vallés (Catalonia, in Spain) the days 25 and 26 of September 1962, that were only the beginning of a period of exceptional autumnal rains in Eastern Catalonia that extended until the decade of 70’s (6)  . Rains of these days had torrential character in Eastern Vallés, Baix Llobregat, and Maresme ( province of Barcelona ). The steep riverbanks took away the cabins of the immigrants, causing 296 dead, 416 disappeared and 67 wounded ones. 

         December 25th 1962 Barcelona gets up with a totally unusual snow fall for a city bathed by the Mediterranean , accumulating a thickness of half meter of snow in 24 hours.  From the climatic point of view it is a totally exceptional fact. 

         In January 1963 the Iberian Peninsula underwent a cold wave that affected the NE. quadrant with an intense snow weather. The phenomenon reached Balearic Islands , Levante and Andalusian East. 

         The winter 1962-1963 was the coldest in the United Kingdom from 1740, which gives idea of the scale of the phenomenon which we are treating. (7)   In the United States period 1962-65 were the four drier years since it is had rainfall registries there, that is to say, from 1738. (8)  

         Are bound these phenomena to the stellium  of Aquarius that we can see in the figure?  For ancient doctrines there is no doubt, since a celestial configuration of this type dominates the cosmic panorama during a long period, until the energy accumulated for it dissipates and a new one with different consequences replaces it. 

         Case 1.3.  The drought of the 80 in the Iberian Peninsula

         December 19th 1979 8:24 GMT ( Madrid )

         June 12th  1980 20:39 GMT ( Madrid )

         One of the more severe droughts that whipped the Iberian Peninsula during century XX was the one that began in 1980. November and December of 1979 already are described as dry by the students of the climate, and in March 1980 appeared the first symptoms from serious drought.

         Winter 1980-81 was described as " extraordinarily dry ", followed of a rainy period in March (locally intense rains in the East).  From 6th  to 21th  of June 1981 there was an intense heat wave, the more hard of the century until that date. Autumn 1981 was probably the driest of the last 200 years, and only at the end of December intense rains fell. 

         In the figure of  December 19th 1979 the three superior planets, Mars, Jupiter and Saturn, are in the sign of Virgo. Such configuration is called bay the Book of the Crosses  “burnings”: 

         Know that droughts and diminutions of waters have two meanings. 

         One of them is the “burning” of the superior planets, that is, Saturn, Jupiter, Mars and the Sun, already described it in the beginning of the book, according to the opinion of the wise people on whom it is based.  It is spoken of it when the four mentioned planets are in a triplicity,  all together in a sign or distributed by the signs of that triplicity. This is what these wise people call “burning” of planets. 

         When thus they appear, it means great dryness and diminution of waters, and if so burning takes place in winter, it means strong cold, snows and many frosts in the heart of the station, that are 40 days, 20 last of December and 20 first days of January.

         If burning of planets takes place in summer, it means great heats and great dryness in the dog  days, that are the 20 last days of July and the 20 first days of August. 

         Know that the more strong burning and with the meaning most powerful is the one than it takes place in the triplicity of Fire or Air, since when the four superior planets are in Fire or Air signs, it means great loss of life, many diseases and epidemics, and much badly by all earth and places, many fights and conflicts, battles between  men and people, wasting of villas and places.  Mainly these things will occur in places where signs occupied by the planets have rulership.

         If the four planets were together in a sign, they will correspond all these evils to the villa signified by this sign, and that villa will be fought by each part until being destroyed. But when this burning of four planets takes place in the triplicity of Earth or Water, it does not mean so much badly nor so many damages, but that it is related to rains and waters. (9)  

         In the figure of new moon previous to the entrance of the astronomical summer 1980 it continues the situation of burning with the three superior planets in Virgo; that is, the stellium had a long duration. This is very important from the influential point of view. In fact, this drought was one of the worse ones of century XX for the Iberian territory. 

         Case 1.4.  Spanish record of rainfall in a day and flood of Valencia in October 1957

         September 23th  1957 19:19 GMT Valencia ( Spain )

October 8th  1957 21:43 GMT Valencia ( Spain )

         Valencians usually say that, in his country, “when it rains, he does not know to rain”.  In Mediterranean Spanish, months of drought they can be followed by torrential and until tropical rainfalls.  The absolute records of rainfall do not occur in Spain , but sometimes are mentioned values of exotic countries that can produce laughter when it compares with the one of Jávea October 2th  1957:  871 l/m 2  in 24 hours in that well-known tourist villa. 

         In the Iberian Mediterranean coasts the only significant rains of the year take place with East wind.  It is enough that it blows of this direction so that the abundant humidity that accumulates the air of this closed sea collapses on the abutments of next mountains.  The phenomenon worsens when in the high layers of the atmosphere there is cold air, or some bubble of The Jet Stream  is falling apart of the general flow and, erratic, rambles by our latitudes.  If reaches to the Iberian East the thermal gradient is enormous (the Mediterranean is a hot sea, mainly in autumn), and the air ascents, generating torrential and until tropical heavy showers.

         If we looked the celestial figures corresponding to the rainfall record of Jávea and the tragic flood of the Turia River in 1957, we can see another stellium, the meeting of the Sun, Mars and Jupiter in Libra.  During the first quarter was registered the record of Jávea. For the Full Moon, phase of the flood on the Valencian capital, the Moon passed opposite to the s tellium  of  Libra, as it demands the Book of the Crosses.  Day 16 the exact conjunction Mars-Jupiter took place.  But look up that in the figure of the Full Moon Mercury advances towards the stellium  of Libra, so that day 13 reached the conjunction with Mars to 18:51 and, day 14, did it with Jupiter to 12:51.  These were the algid dates of the flood on the Valencian capital. 

         That an inferior planet goes from a superior to another we can see it in multiple cases of study. 

         Searching for " new ways "

         The examples that we finished putting are an introductory advance to seed the doubt in the reader, to whom in principle we suppose sceptical - and perhaps he has good reasons for it -. In fact, which we are proposing does not constitute no newness, nor has the smaller originality.  An ample bibliography exists on the subject, so well known by the historians of science as ignored by the scientific community.  In Spain we have the Book of the Crosses, already mentioned, Castilian translation of a series of manuscripts that circulated along Al Andalus, coming from North Africa, which dedicates an important part of its content to the prediction of droughts, heats, hail stones, appearance of lobsters, floods, times of abundance and scarcity, etc., by means of astronomical markers (the " crossings ", immediately we will speak of them). 

         In this work, the more remarkable astronomical markers are the superior planets, Mars, Jupiter and Saturn, indeed the ones that by their distance to the Earth seem of weaker and improbable influence in principle (we repeat once again, exclusively from the quantitative point of view, that is, applying a more or less linear logic). 

         The works of translation were made in Toledo during the second half of century XIII and in them participated Alfonso X the Wise, king of Castile . From this system there are two independent Arab manuscripts in the Library of San Lorenzo de El Escorial ( Madrid ). (10)   

         Such system of prediction was used by the nomads from North African steppes, very sensible populations to the whims of climate in as barren regions as those.  The historian Juan Vernet thinks that he is quite previous to the Arab expansion, and supposes that its origin come from the lowlatin period. (11)  

         We can think that medieval North African nomads, as peasants in general, would be practical people and hardly they would deceive themselves by trivialities or unfounded histories. 

         In fact, the system of the crossings constitutes the development of the great conjunctions, that we know through the Persian astrologer Abumassar, and was very used by the Arabs when they were the intellectual head of the known world.  Medieval Europeans looked for this type of works, specially in Spanish territories just released of the Arab dominion, because such knowledge constituted the most advanced of the science at this time. 

         The Book of the Crosses  was published again during century XX, and now the original manuscript is available in digital edition www.bne.es  Unfortunately, only linguists are interested in this type of works;  nevertheless, they contain a doubtless scientific value, that we thought is useful and he must update so that the old tree can give new fruits. 

         This type of science became obsolete between centuries XVII and XVIII, with the abandonment of aristotelian physics and the sprouting of a new one with the works of Newton , Galileo, Kepler and who followed to them later.  Kepler, who is present in the texts of our bachelors and college students, was the last investigator of the planetary influences. He tried to elaborate a mathematical theory to justify some particular aspects of the elements that conform the Solar System.  In Mysterium Cosmographicum  (The Secret of the Universe) and Harmonices mundi  ("The Harmony of the World ", or better, " The Harmonics in the World") (12)  approached the problem of the harmonic proportions between distances, periods, etc., of which they only continue effective its three well-known laws. 

         We can read mentioned works now in diverse European languages, because they are reedited with certain frequency, and state through them that the great thinker, as any other scientist of its time or of other ancestors, considered the Solar System a unique machinery in which all their constituent elements work in an integrated manner;  particularly, in this way to see the world, it is the turn of skies (planetary spheres) the cause of multiple terrestrial events (among them the weather).  It is known that Kepler published every year an astronomical almanac where she provided weather forecasts; it has said that he did by economic necessity and he hated the inclusion of such prognoses, and, although it can have some precise reason (Kepler had a very bitter character), such affirmation is denied through the general reading of its works (De fundamentis astrologiae certioribus (13)   etc.); in the almanac for 1602 invited the readers to contrast his prognoses with reality. 

         Kepler tried to find a mathematical model of the Solar System that explained the existing relation - well known and stated through observation - between the planetary movement and certain terrestrial events, among them the development of climatic sequences.  For it Kepler applied the knowledge of his time - musical theory, that is, Physics of the Sound, harmonic proportions and Geometry of Euclides -; due to such limitations, from the present point of view, his proposals, as the one of fitted regular platonic bodies between the planetary spheres, or the quantification of the " planetary aspects ", are insufficient, because, dealing with waves, Kepler was lacked of the mathematical apparatus necessary to do it. 

         We do not have that deficiency now, but we do not know if a new undulatory model of the Solar System is attainable, in analogy to which already it has been made within the world of atoms and molecules.  Nevertheless, we can understand and update from a new point of view some of the ideas of the scientists of past centuries.  Some remained run aground in the aristotelian, now obsolete world, or in the simple empiricism;  but we have capacity sufficient to give a new return to the crank of the knowledge. 

         Principle of unit and resonance

         In any ancient text we can find the concept of " planetary orbit " since we do at the present time. Astronomical texts previous to the Newtonian Mechanics distinguish clearly the " body " of a planet of their " sphere ", even in the case of Copernicus and the first heliocentrists. (14)   Within the aristotelian scheme of the world the " sphere " is considered solid and transparent, and its turn it drags with himself the material body of the corresponding planet, Sun and Moon included.  Aristotle talks of  " separated intelligences " (15)  to describe its influence, in the sense that there is " order " in the turn of the planets and its skies, or, as now we could say, a " codified information ". 

         On another scale  we have a resemblance in the world of atoms, where we found that each particle also behaves like a wave; when these are organized to overlap themselves in an atomic structure, we spoke at the moment of " energy levels ", hierarchized  in “shells”. The number of these and its electronic configuration allow us to explain the physical and chemical properties observed in each element. Peculiarly, the number of electronic levels in atoms also is seven, and therefore, also seven the number of periods in the Table of Chemical Elements. 

         After Einstein, waves and particles are manifestations of a unique reality, the " field "; the same it can occur in the Solar System:  the grouping of the mass in planet, satellites, belts of asteroid, rings, etc., reveals to us the places where the gravitational field intensifies, that is to say, a well organized structure of a set of forces that work as a whole, where each part is connected to others by principles of harmony and resonance among them.

         When particles are organized in stars to form atoms from the plasma, they appear the " energy levels ", that is to say, the stratification and quantification of mass and energy directed by a certain " information ", always present in each point of the Cosmos.  Each atom (chemical element) constitutes an individuality, that is repeated cyclically (Periodic Table in Chemistry, " families " of elements). 

         A similar organization is observed in the formation of the Solar System from the cosmic dust and mass in inform state:  this one begins to turn around an accidental accumulation (heterogeneity), separating slowly in rings to quantified distances and with periods equally determined, from which the planets arise, and in them the atomic and molecular complexity, and, finally, if adapted conditions occur, spring the phenomenon of the life.  We are interested to establish here that, as much in atoms as in the Solar System, each particle it undergoes the influence of the others and influences also the rest.  For that reason the part is looked as a whole and vice versa. If we can generalize the laws of a part of the universe to the rest, is because the single Nature is only one; but, when extracting or ignoring one or several of its parts to study what it is (reduccionism, simplification, present scientifism), instead of the reality, we are working with a dummy, a resemblance, but absolutely with which we wished, and can get to confuse the pine with the forest. 

         Given the uniqueness whereupon the Nature works we have good reasons to raise as initial hypothesis the existence of analogies between the atomic systems and the planetarians (to the inverse it was in the historical development of the theories in atomistic). 

         The important thing is that nothing prevents us - on the contrary, it seems most logical and sensible to have in mind that the different elements from the Solar System work in an integrated way and are hierarchized in an unique whole – in the same way that it does an atoms, saving the scale differences and nature of the intervening forces -; beyond the dry concepts of orbit, mass, energy and hamiltonians whereupon Celestial Mechanics describes the planetary movement, this one also responds to one richer and complex network of fields, hardly modelable in theories - we do not forget, a theory is a scheme of the reality, but not the reality  itself – with continuous interchanges of information between all parts to which its dynamism is linked. 

         The birth of a Solar System arises from an accidental condensation of matter in chaotic state that begins to turn with increasing degree of organization, it continues structuring itself in rings and it finishes " crystallizing " in a series of bodies with orbits, periods and distances to the mass center, well determined .  From this point of view, we can consider the Solar System like a great oscillator (similarity of atoms) and to planets and satellites like individual oscillating;  in other words, it is reasonable to describe it in undulatory terms, yet what it entails (interchange of energy by resonance between some of its parts, etc.). 

         But the Solar System is not an eternal machine, nor a perfect clock, as they supposed the aristotelian and the great mathematicians who continued the works of Newton ;  in fact, the insigne English already realized thah certain " misalignments " in the planetary movement could take place (gravitational pulls, theory of the disturbances). Newton though that the stability of the Solar System sometimes required the intervention of the divine providence. (16)  

         We know that the amazing regularity that we observed in the planetary movement is not as solid as it thought and nothing prevents that phenomena of chaotic type may occur sometimes causing important jumps in the behavior of the System.  We observed in atoms something similar:  they are stable, but, in a set of them, we have statistical distributions of radioactive decomposition. In other words, as much the atomic buildings, the Solar System can get to critical states causing substantial transformations from time to time. 

         The important thing for us here and now is that nothing happens in a separate way. Neither the particle moves at random in the atom nor the planet in its System. Both constitute a part of a whole that interchanges energy with its surroundings and evolves entirely, connected, in other words, to its constituent elements. Anything of them work isolate of the others. Each part acts over the whole and vice versa, both the part and the whole are evolving together, that is the main characteristic of dynamic systems and alive beings, the interaction continued and permanent transformation, apparently discontinuous, with intercritical periods of certain relative stability and abrupt jumps in the evolution during the critical points. Phenomena of accumulation and positive feedback  are a distinctive characteristic of the complex dynamic systems, that we are treating (Solar System and connection terrestrial atmosphere-ocean-continents).

         Can we be sure that this connection, the main cause of the development of climatic sequences, has anything to do with the global evolution of that complex system of masses and fields that the Solar System constitutes?  Is the weakness of planetary influence a reason enough to consider it negligible? Still in this case, the accumulation effect would cause that, along a sufficient time, the sum of weak pulses could take appreciable values, and therefore to get transforming capacity.  We must not forget we are talking of climatic variability, with periods superior to one year, which makes more viable the intervention of planetary dynamics (resonant cycles of middle period with them). 

         In any case we have two incontrovertible governing principles to undertake our investigation: the Uniqueness of the Nature - non-independence and non-separativity between the parts - and the one of resonance, always applicable when we dealt with undulatory phenomena (oscillating, cycles). In this perspective, that planetary dynamics can have verifiable effects in the development of climatic variability, it does not constitute a visionary dream, but an expectable reality. 

         Planets as oscillators

         Modern atomists summarize in seven the number of electronic levels of atoms, and with the same value ancient astronomers quantified the number of planetary spheres to explain his system of the world (although some modern astronomers and physicists have boasted themselves of the ignorance of our ancestors, which did not know the existence of Uranus, Neptune and Pluto).  The coincidence does not seem a chance, nor either which we find seven colors in the visible spectrum of light (approximately one octave), and also seven major notes in the musical scale. On the contrary, this coincidence insinuates that we are before a cosmological reality, before the intimate structure of the material universe. 

         We are dealing with waves, so the ancient talk about  " music of the spheres "; let us remember that " music " means in the past " Acoustics " or " Physics of the Sound " and little had to do with the aesthetic one, as are suggested to us. Ancients supposed that the turn of the sky and its spheres emitted one " melody ", inaudible for us, but real, verifiable cause of tuning, resonance and physical effects on the Earth.  By the way, let see the existing relation between the denominations of musical notes and Astronomy: 

Note                                       Latin Denomination                                  Meant

Do                                          Dominus                                                   God                                                      

  Re                                        Regina Astri                                              Moon

  Mi                                           Mistus Orbis                                              Earth

  Fa                                           Fatum                                                         Destiny

  Sol                                          Sun                                                            Sun La                                Lactus Orbis                                       Milky Way Si                                            Siderus Orbis                                          Sky, sphere

         In the past, most of astronomers, of Ptolemy to Kepler, or mathematicians, as was Nicomacus the Pythagorean, tried to explain the planetary effect on the Earth by means of musical theories; an important personage in the history of science as Ptolemy dedicated a work exclusively to this subject, Harmonicas. (17)    Nicomacus the Pythagorean wrote The Manual of harmonics (18)  and Kepler the already mentioned Harmonices mundi. 

         We must remember here that “cosmos” is a Greek term that means " beautiful ", " adornment", but not in the aesthetic sense that we give these terms today. Plato talks of the " more beautiful triangle " in Timeus  and others of its works, but in terms of mathematical harmony, of determined numerical proportions or relations, not about “aesthetic” that we use today . 

         Ancients worked with these relatively simple mathematics, as much in Musical Theory, as in Architecture and Astronomy, as we can see in the effort of Kepler trying to explain the existing correlations between the distances of planets to the Sun and their corresponding periods. But now we know that, when speaking of planetary influence, we are before waves, and our present mathematical apparatus to deal with them much more powerful that in the past.

         We can find many observable astronomical phenomena that  approaches to simple harmonic movement: the ascent and descent of the Sun in the annual cycle, the one of the Moon in the monthly cycle and the one of 18.6 years (dracontic revolution), the pendulum behavior of Mercury and Venus on the horizon, etc.

         Watched from the Earth (that is to say, if we fix here the origin of our coordinates system), each planet behaves for us like an oscillator, if we consider its movement daily and also the sinodic.  Its gravitational, luminous flow, etc. can be described like a wave. Particularly remarkable it is its behavior in the sinodic cycle: the first important achievement of any culture in Astronomy has been to determine the sinodics periods and the existing relations among them (Middle East, Mesoamerica , China , etc.). 

         Mercury and Venus (lower planets) present for us the Maxima angular velocity in the superior conjunction with the Sun; then decelerate slowly and they finish stopping with respect to the fixed stars (first station, that is apparent, but real from the Earth).  Mercury does to 17 °  of distance to the Sun and Venus to 28° . After the first station they invest its motion with respect to the fixed star, accelerate and get the Maxima negative angular speed in the inferior conjunction with the Sun. Then they decelerate until the second station, to start up and to accelerate themselves until get again the maximum in a new superior conjunction with the Sun, etc. As they turn also change its distance with respect to the Earth, so why we have two cyclical variables, the radial speed and the angular one. 

         In the case of Mars, Jupiter and Saturn (upper planets), its Maxima distance to the Earth and the Maxima angular velocity occurs in the conjunction with the Sun.  Then the Sun advances them and the upper planets are losing motion slowly until stopping  with respect to fixed stars (first station).  Mars does to 135 ° of distance to the Sun, Jupiter to 117 ° and Saturn to 109° . Then they go retrograde, get a maximum of negative angular speed in the opposition to the Sun (180 °  of angular distance) and a minimum of distance to the Earth.  Surpassed this point they decelerate and finally stop again (second station) and move in the sense of the signs of the Zodiac again, accelerating itself until to get another maximum in the next conjunction with the Sun.

         And all this, take will place apart from it happens in the terrestrial atmosphere and the hydrosphere, both so sensible and fluid?  Will not it have any repercussion in the systems of the great terrestrial organism?  Are we authorized to imagine that certain phenomena can happen completely independent of the others, that there are not any nexus of union among them?  The planetary gravitational flow, for example, is so weak in comparison with the lunar and solar. We estimate that the action of Venus supposes 1/5156 respect the lunar and in the case of Jupiter 1/64.000. But this action has been present always.  Then, can we study these interactions between planets separately, since we do with a chemical reaction in its little reactor, or the movement of a simple wharf?  Are applicable such elemental criteria to simple physical-chemical systems that to the lunar, solar and planetary movements over a so complex organization and with so many interactive and autoregulators mechanisms of operation of the sets that integrate the Earth? 

         There is another way to contemplate the reality that analytical, as it is to start off of the Principle of Unit, and therefore of the similarity between the part and the whole, the whole and the part.  Within the human organism, some doctors see in the iris of the eyes the complete body and conditions of each of the organs; others do it through the hand, or establish relations between genetic and the digital lines of the palms, fingerprints and ridges of the skin. Some others through the sole of the foot (reflexology): they know to stimulate organs and systems manipulating small zones of hands, feet, ears, etc.

         It happens the same to planetary scale in relations of the Earth with the rest of components of the Solar System?  Works the Solar System as a whole and between the totality and the part exits relations governed by Principles of resonance and analogy?  In such case it would be necessary to expect for correlations and synchronisms between certain planetary configurations and phenomena like climatic variability; by means of the study of the inductive planetary wave, it would be easy to calculate and predict, the development of the other (induced terrestrial wave). 

         Correlation between climatic variability and astronomical cycles

         The ancients represented the year means of a serpent that bit the tail; still we can see it in some traditional forms of the King’s cake. Within a cycle, as it is known, all points are not equal, nor have the same importance. If we talk about the annual climatic sequence, it returns to similar conditions after 365.25 days, but never a climatic year is equal to another one. Now we know that, in systems where chaotic conditions can occur, as it is the atmosphere, small variations in the initial conditions can cause very divergent development of the climatic sequences (climatic variability). 

         Astronomers in different countries have their criteria to begin the civil year. However, when begins really the climatic year?  This it is a more arduous problem to solve. The agriculturist year, for example, who includes the amounts of annual precipitation, begins conventionally with the month of September, once finalized the dry period of summer. 

         European proverbs contains  very rich tradition on the determinations that for climate has the weather that does at certain moments of the year (Meteorognomy, that is to say, Empirical Meteorology). This oral tradition already were found by medieval Arab grammarians (19)  and we also know it through Greek parapegmata (20)   Pliny, in his Natural History  refers to us that

         Democritus thinks that the winter will be like has been the solstice of winter and the next three days, and that the summer will just be like the June solstice. (21)  

         To predict the weather in the long term by means of observation of one or several dates of the year is an universal practice, by means of conventional calendars (in our case Christian calendar of saints’ days, “cabañuelas”, “témporas”, etc.)  or the risings and settings of stars (amazonian not westernized cultures, Polynesians, etc.). So, we can think that ancients distinguished the importance that the state of the atmosphere at certain moments of the cycle has in the development of climatic sequences.

Beyond the beliefs and of the appearances, the important fact that underlies and on that we must reflect is that, from the physical-influential point of view, the moments of the year are not all equal. For complex systems, the time is not an abstract continuous variable like we can use for simple systems . 

         There are critical moments in the annual climatic cycle of much greater relevance than the rest, because the behaviour of the atmosphere in those moments determine the development of the next sequences, due to his own internal rhythms (as in general happens with the biological clocks in complex organisms). However, these internal rhythms of climatic sequences depend directly on the annual solar wave (inductive), that repeats similar to itself every year.  Nevertheless, there are not two equal successive climatic years, which lead to suspect of the rest of components of the astronomical wave, that is to say, of the planetary configurations, always different from a year to another. So weak that those influences can be, if the whole is reflected in the part and this one in the totality due to the Principles of Unit and Resonance, we have good reasons for investigate by this way and try to clarify the existing correlation between the inductive astronomical wave and the terrestrial induced climatic. 

         If we can find significant parallelisms between the complex inductive planetary wave and the induced climatic, this will open the doors to an enormous field of investigation, with some perspectives that our ancestors did not have (mathematical tools much more developed and use of computers). 

         Inductive planetary configurations.  Physical meaning  of the " planetary aspects "

         The ancients left us works and a thought that, since there are saying, in the present time interest more to the linguists that to scientific investigators. We think that in the ancient legacy there is a hidden treasure that waits for its unearthers, that is, who know to update the message that contains by means of the advances of modern science, that is, Physics and Mathematics. Only in this way we will able surpass definitively the great crisis that western knowledge experimented between centuries XVII and XVIII, beginning of modern science with all his profits, but also of deliriums of the mind like positivism, rationalism and Illustration. 

         We have spoken of diverse works and authors, and of others we will also do it throughout the present work.  But all of them agree in the singularity of the planetary conjunctions as significators of celestial events associated to important changes in the terrestrial systems: 

         The Conjunction of planets indicates the transformation of the world and its things, that therefore are taken at the moment of the Conjunction of the highest planets and the inferior ones (22)

         You have to know that the great and admirable things happen by the Conjunction of superior planets, due to the slow movement they present (23) .

         Our objective here is not exposing and justifying all the astrological doctrine, but showing the way to the reader so that he can understand the value and usefulness that still contains. The previous quotations distinguish clearly between planets superior to the Sun (Mars, Jupiter and Venus) and inferior (Mercury and Jupiter);  Abraham Ben Ezra, the first Jew that introduced in Europe during century XII the system of positional numeration which we used at the moment anywhere in the world, called " sovereign " the superior planets. Other authors claim that inferior planets " obey " to the superior ones, which to the hurried opinion can be taken by a double silly thing (one, that planets, by their insignificance for us, can represent some type of influence, and two, that most distant planets can be those from more remarkable effects).

         But the slow planets, although apparently insignificant, with its movement around us supposes every day a small pulse for the Earth, which is repeated on the next day from practically the same place of the celestial sphere, and to the other, and the next week, next month, etc.  Insignificant, like the drop of water that falls on the hard rock and ends up undermining it with the passage of the years; accumulating a passage on another one, a cycle on the next one...

         The slow planet is like a great spring that loads very little every day, but step by step supposes a slight compression;  it is equivalent to the slow accumulation of potential energy in other mechanical systems, so that, after the time, it can be released with apparently out of proportion effects. 

         The inferior planet, much more fast, rather implies a pulse of kinetic energy; from a day to another it has changed the position and its action no longer falls on the same point.  Combined with the effect of the superior planet is the unchaining agent (“trigger effect", the token of dominoes that drags all the others). The slow planet is the one that has previously aligned and put them in conditions for being swept by a single one of them.  Ben Ezra says "to give the force ", the inferior planet to the superior one. (24)   

         Some will ask us for other planets like Uranus, Neptune and Pluto, even by certain asteroids that others take into consideration.  We have worked with the seven visible planets by rough estimate naked, and not by simple purism or traditionalism. The ancients represented the world by seven planetary spheres, and moderns we have found seven electronic levels in atoms, which, applying the Principle of Analogy, animates to us not to complicate things more than already they are themselves. 

         The meeting of two or more planets in a small zone of the sky (conjunction or stellium) supposes a singularity of the corresponding astronomical cycles (and its associate influences):   it is the time of the reordering all the harmonics, that start off from there (an unique point) embracing all the celestial sphere.

         But ancient treatises also speak to us of " planetary aspects ", that is to say, of certain values of angular distance between planets, usually measured throughout the ecliptic (45 °  60 °  72 °  90 °  120 °  180 °  and still others) that suppose compositions or interferences of influences (waves) of implied planets. We have already said that many authors tried to give account of this fact, observed from very ancient times, applying the mathematical apparatus of their time, that is, musical theories and Euclides’ Geometry (harmonic proportions, Physics of the Sound).

         Two Spanish authors have made their contribution in century XX and to them we sent the reader:  The Theory of Fundamental Equations (25)  (Demetrio Santos) and The Function of Planetary Wave (Miguel García). (26)   For the former planetary aspects suppose a maximum in the divergence of the speed of vibration of the pairs of harmonics, and therefore moments in which the connected systems can get into crisis and undergo a drastic transformation (in a mechanical system the value of the elastic constant of milieu would be surpassed), with dissipation of energy (transference to milieu) and loss of amplitude and frequency in the propagation of the wave. 

         The second author has worked the mathematical parallelisms that present the functions of  Quantum Mechanics and the waves associated to the positions of the planets:  the planetary aspect is equivalent to the product of the function of wave per its conjugated, that is to say, to the probability of finding the electron in a point of the space, that is, to that certain fact related to the spectrum of rulerships of the planets in aspect become true.                

If our initial hypothesis is correct (usefulness of astronomical markers in long term forecast), they will be this rhythms (planetary conjunctions and aspects) those that we will use for make a good prediction of beginnings, algid and final points of climatic spells. 

         And there is no other way to check our assertion that to verify it by means of observation. 

         Global effect and local effect

         A question arises immediately:  if the astronomical marker (planet conjunction or aspect) is only one for any part of the globe, it seems to vanish the smaller possibility of success when we realize that droughts in some zones occur simultaneously with floods in others, etc.

         For example, when historical colds of February of 1956, the isotherm of Laponia was more temperate than the one it passed by North Africa;  the rare droughts of the Cantabrian cornice usually go parallel to rainy periods in the Iberian East (1956, 1989, etc.). Usually it also happens that good weather in the British Islands comes associate to rains in the Iberian Peninsula , etc.

         Global climatic alterations like El Niño (El Niño Southern Oscillation), the North Atlantic Oscillation and similar implies to the overturning of habitual areas of high and low pressures, the one of the cycles of rain and drought according to different zones of the globe. 

         It is known  that the Earth seems to have a planetary breathing, with phases of inspiration and expiration; if we paid attention to the complete atmospheric system that constitutes the North Hemisphere, it corresponds with the interchange of the great zones of high and low pressure that causes the ascending phase of the Sun (January to June) and the descendent (July to December). 

         During the boreal winter the Sun stops on the South Hemisphere (Tropic of Capricorn) and high pressures occupies then the great continental areas of the North Hemisphere, very cooled by the lack of insolation (Russia, Siberia, etc.). Simultaneously, low pressures become stabilized over extensive oceanic waters, very warm in comparison.  These positions are reversed when the Sun ascends and it becomes stabilized over the Tropic of Cancer with the arrival of our astronomical summer (low pressures in continents, very heated, and anticyclonic areas over the oceans, colder in comparison). 

         Another atmospheric "respiratory" pulse is the descent of the zonal circulation of low pressure areas that takes place during the climatic winter (time of colds, rains and snows), and the ascent that usually occurs at the end of astronomical spring (for us the arrival of summer stability). 

         Combination of both rhythms provides the annual climatic sequence for each zone of the North Hemisphere (similarly happens in the South but at opposed times of the year). Along areas of middle latitudes as those of the Iberian Peninsula such movements cause that major meteorological variability takes place at the times of transition (climatic spring and autumn), indeed the rainy and windy seasons. 

         Some years, a great anticyclone blocks the advance of cyclonic fronts for months, causing a lack of rain, and vice versa, it rains for weeks and months, breaking statistical averages. And to forecast this type of meteorological regime is the main aim in the long term prediction. What is hidden behind all this apparent chaos?  Internal rhythms of the connection atmosphere-ocean-continents?  The simple chance, the physical chaos?  Or, perhaps, can we glimpse some arrangement in the apparent confusion? 

         We think that exits an inductive ordering in the connection of these rhythms to the planetarians. To global causes they must also respond global effects, very diverse from a point of the planet to another, of course.  The key lies in the great trends of the atmospheric circulation (position of the Jet Stream, wind speed in high layers, zonal circulation, points of anchorage of the great areas of high and low pressure, etc.). Very small variations in the values of the wind speed implies to tear off in undulations of Jet Stream, causing  I.D.H.L.s (Isolated Depression in High Levels), or, on the contrary, that this phenomenon does not take place.  There are some years in which scarcely to tear off a little number and some others that the “dripping” is continuous during the autumn. 

         The problem is complex, very complex, but we thought that little by little it will be possible to find some associations of facts and progressively improving both knowledge and predictions.  We are going to make some proposals throughout this work, always applied to the geographic surroundings of the Iberian Peninsula;  others will be able to use such marking to see correlations in others areas of globe. 

         The ancients worked the concept of rulership (signs of the Zodiac on certain regions, planets and winds, etc.), but how we can much more extend the idea (values of planetary angular speeds, gradients, composition of waves and harmonics, etc.). The ancients also applied the doctrine of Sorts (the Sort of rain, for example, in Meteorology), that today we know as amazing arithmetic operations of the positions of planets. Miguel García, Spanish mathematician and astrologer has suggested that this operations were additions and subtractions of vectors (planetary positions) made in times when the complex numbers were not known. 

         We must not think about simplistic correlations as to associate such planetary conjunction or such aspects to such facts on a concrete Earth area, so that with the next similar configuration it will be expectable a repetition of previous climatic history. The great number of variables to include in planetary waves that receives the Earth causes that its composition is never repeated, and, if even so it were, hardly would find the terrestrial sets tunned with it in the same state of the previous occasion. It is well known by the students of cosmic influences that planetary cycles are never closed on themselves, so the difficulty to make impeccable systematic predictions by means of the use of astronomical markers. Even so, we have open before us an ample line of work and investigation. 

         We will finish this article with the words of a Spanish meteorologist who worked the subject of atmospheric rhythms:

         We can imagine the atmosphere like a gigantic " sonorous tube " in which contractions and expansions follow one another.  First they are the formation of high pressure or anticyclones and the second formation of low pressure or storms.  Both systems as it is known are related intimately to the evolution of the local weather conditions. 

         If in fact the hydrodynamics laws are fulfilled,  atmospheric “flute” must be interpreting something as well as mysterious melody, excessively complicated but, of course, non chaotic (27) .. 

         In any case, to work with planetary influences, although extremely weak, seems to us more judicious and useful than to resort to simple statistics or the blind treatment of the registries of meteorological observatories. 

         Notes

         1. -  The present calculations indicate a variation in the inclination of the terrestrial axis between 21 ° 39´ and 24 ° 27´con period of about 40,000 years;  the eccentricity of 92,000 orbit and the precession about 26,000 years.

         2. -  Of this congress it gives to the news the Father Ignacio Puig, S.J. in his work lunar Influences,  published in Buenos Aires in 1942.  This personage did not have to present/display no doubt for anybody, because he was assistant director of the Observatory of the Ebro ( Tortosa , Spain ), pioneering institution in the world within his field, and director of the Observatory of Cosmic Physics of San Miguel in Argentina . 

         3. -  Present English edition in the collection Islamic Philosophy, Theology exists and Science.  Text and Studies.  Edited by H. Daiber and D. Pingree, Volume XXXIII.  Brill. Leiden .   Boston .  Köln, 2000. 

         4. -  Castilian edition of the same one exists.  Johannes Kepler.  The secret of the universe   Publishing Alliance .   Madrid , 1992. 

         5. -  Published by the National Institute of Meteorology. Madrid , 1988. 

         6. -  Innocent Font Tullot.  History of the climate in Spain .  Climatic changes and their causes.  National Institute of Meteorology .   Madrid , 1988.  Pág.  175.

         7. -  Ídem, pág.  142. 

         8. -  Ídem notices previous. 

         9. -  Book of the Cruzes   Edition of Lloyd To Kasten and Lawrence B. Kiddle.  Superior advice of Scientific researches.  Institute " Miguel de Cervantes ".  Madrid-Madison, 1961. CAP 65.  Fol 199 r., 199 v. Pág.  165. 

         10. -  In addition to the mentioned one in the previous note there are two independent Arab manuscripts in the Library of the Monastery of the Escorial, in Madrid, translated the Castilian:  Arab texts of the " Book of the Crosses ",  Alfonso X, by Rafael Muñoz.  In Texts and studies on Spanish Astronomy in century XIII.  Published by Juan Vernet.  Faculty of Philosophy and Letters. Independent university of Barcelona .   Barcelona , 1981. 

         11. -  Mentioned by Demetrio Santos in Introduction to the History of the Astrology.    Edicomunicación , S.A. .   Barcelona , 1986.  Pág.  191. 

         12. -  Of this second work exists relatively recent French translation:  Jean Kepler, L'harmonie du monde.   Translation of Jean Peyroux.  Éditions Bergeret.   Bordeaux .  

         13. -  Recent Castilian translation of this work exists: Johannes Kepler.  Of the very certain foundations of the Astrology.  Gracentro Editions.   Zaragoza , 2003. 

         14. -  To see in this respect the work of Thomas Digges A perfect description of the celestial spheres  according to the ancient doctrine of the Pythagoreans,  recently reviewed by Copernic and credited by means of geometric demonstrations (London, 1576).  Modern Castilian edition, with translation, introduction and notes of Alberto Elena.   Alianza Editorial , S.A. Madrid , 1986. 

         15. -  The commentaries are advisable in this respect on the subject of the Cordovan Jew Maimónides in their Guide of perplex,  since it crosses the opinion of Aristotle the one of his own tradition.  Edition prepared by David Gonzalo Maeso.  National Publisher.   Madrid , 1984.  Second part, Chapter I SAW. 

         16. -   Newton reaffirms itself in this idea at the end of their Opticks.   Mentioned by Desiderio Papp in The problem of the origin of worlds.    Espasa-Calpe , S.A. Madrid , 1965.  CAP I, pág.  23. 

         17. -  Recent Castilian version exists:  Claudius Ptolemy.  Harmonicas.   Translation and notes of Demetrio Santos.  Miguel Gómez Editions.   Malaga , 1999.

         18. -  English version of this work exists:  Manual The of Harmonics of Nichomachus the Pythagorean  Translation and commentary by Flora R. Levin.  Phanes Press.   Grand Rapids , U.S.A.  

         19. -  To see in this respect Treated on anwá and the times.  Chapter on the months.   Ibn Asim. Study, translation and critical edition by Miquel Nogués. Superior Council of Scientific Researches.   Institute of Cooperation with the Arab world.  Institute Millàs Vallicrosa de Historia of Arab Science.   Barcelona , 1993.  Also An andalusian anonymous calendar   Edition, translation and notes of  Mª Ángeles Navarro.  Superior Council of Scientific Researches.   School of Arab Studies.   Granada , 1990. 

         20. -  To consult in this respect Introduction to the phenomena,  of Geminus.  Introduction, translation and notes of Esteban Calderón Dorda.  Gredos Editorial.   Madrid , 1993. Also Phenomena,  of Avieno.  Translation and notes of Jose Calderón Dorda.  Gredos Editorial.   Madrid , 2001. 

         21. -  In 18.62.12. 

         22. -  Messahallah.  On the reception of planets.   Second Part.   Translation of Demetrio Santos.  Barath Editorial.   Madrid , 1981.  CAP 8. 

         23. -  Ídem, CAP 9. 

         24. -  Book of the judgments of stars  Publishing Library of Sirventa ( Alicante ), 2001. 

         25. -  Demetrio Santos.  Theoretical Astrology. Fundamental Equations.   Barath Editorial.   Madrid , 1985. 2nnd edition of the author, Zamora 2002.  To also see, of the same author, Physical Astrology.   Barath Editorial.  Madrid, 1988. 

         26. -  Miguel García Ferrández.  Harmonic suite.  Notebooks of Astrological Investigation Mercurio-3 nº 6. Barcelona, 1997. 

         27. -  Manuel Ledesma Jimeno.  Aerorhytms on the Iberian Peninsula .   National Meteorological Service.   Madrid , 1974. 

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