*** LONG TERM WEATHER FORECAST ***
Traditional methods
Book I: Treaty of
Meteorognomy
200 pages dedicated to the study of the origin of
“Cabañuelas”,
as much in
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INDEX
Introduction How
it has been developed tthis work and gratefulness
Chapter I. What is
Meteorognomy? Definition of Meteorognomy.
The origins. Meteorognomy in
the Spanish oral tradition. Concept
of the time in the old mentalities. Utility
and actual range in bombing of the Astrometeorology and Meteorognomy
………………………………………….............................
9
Chapter II Systems of long term prediction in Meteorognomy Calendars
outdoors: risings and settings
of stars. Cabañuelas. Introduction and concept.
Origin. Foundation.
Cyclical conception of the chronological and meteorological time.
The tropical zodiac and annual climatic cycle.
Calendars and beginnings of year. Cabañuelas, beginning of cycle and
semisquares. The “témporas”
of mountains basquenavarres............................................................................
15
Chapter III
Remarkable Signs in Meteorognomy. Mists. Dew. The
observation of dew and mists in the period of cabañuelas.
Type of dew in the drought preludes.
Proverbs of dew and fogs. Phenomena
of convection. Stormy activity.
Clouds grazing Environmental
humidity. Atmospheric activity:
types of clouds......................................................................................................
33
Chapter IV Growth fractal and cabañuelas. Description of complex
systems: mass, energy and
information. Fractals and similarity of cycles.
Atmospheric fractals. Beginnings
of climatic cycle. Critical important points. Astronomical wave
and physical wave. Periodic pulses
of the Sun-Moon system on the Earth. Phenomena
associated to accumulation of energy in the atmosphere, the oceans and seas.
The importance of beginnings in development of cycles.
Difficulty to locate them in Meteorognomy.
Application from the model to the August cabañuelas.
The "memory effect" in the general atmospheric circulation.
Application to weather forecast in the East Iberian
Mediterranean coastal area .................................................45
Chapter V. The prevailing wind regime in critical periods. The
precursory winds Introduction: the
precursory winds. a) Winds
of North. b) Winds of the South c) Winds of East. d) Winds of West. e) Winds of thermal
origin. The wind regime and oral tradition
........................................................................57
Chapter VI. Taking
data. Meteorognomical graphs Elaboration of cabañuelas notebooks.
The observation place. Local
data and general performances. Data
to consider: what to observe, what to write down. Preparation of meteorognomical graphs ………………….....................................
63
Chapter VII.
Cabañuelas Notebook August 1997 and 1998:
preludes of oposite cycles Period
of direct cabañuelas August 1997. Period
of direct cabañuelas August 1998
.......................................................................67
Chapter VIII. The preludes
of droughts in cabañuelas' period Verifications
of experimental prognosis. Peculiarities in the meteorognomic observations
of "dog days" of 1998. Reflections on
August cabañuelas of 1998.
Judgment on 13 of April 1999.
Torrential drought and rains. Critical
important points in dry periods
.......................................................................................................
77
Chapter IX. The
Undulatory doctrine in Meteorognomy Introduction.
The undulatory in natural cycles of the atmosphere.
Criteria of polarity. Polarity
in the diurnal cycle. Polarity in cycles of superior period.
Geographic polarity. Phenomena of accumulation and growth fractal.
Phenomena of accumulation in the long term.
Location of critical important points on the atmospheric induced wave. ........................................................................................................87
Chapter X. The tradition of
cabañuelas in old calendars.
Meteorognomic evaluation. The critical periods in the ancient calendars. Confirming
rains of Saint Martin (and the first appearance of August). 1995: end of the
drought of 90's. Preludes of
August and November. 1996:
preludes of August and November of one of the rainiest years of century
XX (1997). 1993:
End of rainy cycle in Saint Martin and beginning of the 94' drought. 1998: end of
rainy cycle and beginning of dry. Preludes
of the driest year of the century in some observatories. The case of 1997-1998: end
of rainy cycle. Autumn 1989:
extraordinarily rainy in the Iberian East, prelude of the 1990's drought. ……………………………..........105
Chapter XI Cabañuelas of the Christmas period . Saint
Lucy and the dates of the confusion. Weather
forecasts in Santa Lucia and Christmas: cabañuelas, calandrias, canablas, tretzenades
The zotal egunak.
Meteorognmical evaluation of the method. Preludes of the solstice of winter before a dry and very warm
year: 1993-1994.
How it was later 1994. Preludes
of the solstice of winter before exceptionally rainy years:
1995-1996, 1996-1997. How it
was later 1996. Christmas preludes
of 1997. How it was later 1997. End
of rainy cycle: preludes of Christmas 1997-1998.
How it was later 1998. Comparison
cycle long -cycle of these four extreme years.
Anticyclonal winter periods: 1988,
1989. Final valuation and
conclusions on cabañuelas of the winter solstice.
A remarkable exception: 1969
………………………………...................................................119
Chapter XII. Cabañuelas of
Saint Mark Introduction.
Probable origin. Little summers and critical important points of the annual
climatic cycle. Cabañuelas of
Saint Mark of 1999. Notebook
cabañuelas of Saint Mark 1999. Evaluating the cabañuelas of Saint Mark.
Second humid halves of spring: 1988,
1990, 1992, 1993. Second dry halves
of spring: 1989, 1991, 1994, 1995,
1996, 1997, 1998 ………………..................................................................
141
Chapter XIII. The
October moon
Cabañuelas . Introduction. Evaluating
the October moon. 1993:
preludes of a continued regime of west winds in December and January, and
of the drought of 1994. Earlier flowering of almonds tree of century XX 1998:
end of cold autumn and winter, with successive continental air
penetrations. September moon or October
moon? Winter 1988-1989.
Autumn 1991 and winter 1992. End
of 1995: the drought of the
Appendix II Traditions of ancient almanacs. Rustic prediction of weather
25 of December: in
what day of the week Christmas falls? Weather
forecasts according to the day of the week in which the year begins according to
Leopold of Austria. Of which it
indicates the type of Moon to the entrance of the Sun in the signs of the Zodiac,
according to Jerónimo Cortés. Heat signals in the summer, according to The Rustic Record of
Dr D. Diego de Torres Villarroel. In
order to know of the coming year by the principle of the dog days, according to
the same author. The clouds male
and the clouds female: an ancient and
popular way to foretell and contemplate the storm formation.
Signals of thunders and hail stones, according to Diego de Torres
Villarroel, in his Rustic
Record Signals of
cold according to the same author and build.
Signals that the cold is close, according to same author and build.
The calendar of the onion and the birds as omen.
Omens of the time in the Phenomena of
Aratus. The weather forecast
through the animals in the Spanish oral tradition.
Other signs of change of time in the oral tradition.
The winds and the clouds, according to proverbs
……………………………..........
179
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